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Good Value and Medium Risk

Good value can often seem like high risk, but it is not.  (See a link below to the ENR conference call on how to develop a high risk portfolio for higher potential profits.) ENR can help Americans in Ecuador bank in Denmark (one of the safest countries in the world) but have access to their savings in Ecuador.

First, here are excerpts from Michael Keppler’s quarterly good value update of global developed equity markets.   Borrow Low-Deposit High subscribers, you can read the entire 79 page report at your password protected site.  Click here.

Learn how to get a multi currency update password

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

New readers learn more about how to benefit from Keppler Asset Management here.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Global equity prices finished yet another quarter at new highs, making it the 13th consecutive positive quarter in local currencies since September 2011. The MSCI World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) advanced 3.3 % in local currencies, 1.0 % in US dollars and 5.4 % in Euros. The Euro continued its recent downtrend, giving up 4.2 % versus the US dollar last quarter and now stands at 1.2101 USD/EUR, down 12.2 % in 2014.

Fourteen markets advanced and nine markets declined last quarter.

Israel (+6.9 %), Japan (+6.7 %) and Ireland (+6.3 %) were the best performing developed markets last quarter.

Portugal (-19.6 %), Norway (-12.4 %) and Italy (-9.6 %) performed worst.

Year-to-date, twenty markets included in the MSCI Developed Markets universe were up and three markets declined.

The best performing markets in 2014 were Israel (+37.6 %), Denmark (+20.7 %) and Belgium (+18.6 %).

Portugal (-29.7 %), Austria (-20.0 %) and Norway (-3.7 %) performed worst last year. Performance is in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

There were no changes in our country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio currently holds ten “Buy” rated markets:  Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom — at equal weights.  According to our analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table above shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the Keppler Asset Management (KAM) Equally-Weighted World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index at the end of 2014, based on selected variables (current numbers for book value; 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables – no forecasts).  In addition, we show the MSCI World Index at its All-Time High Valuation at the end of the last Millennium and its All-Time Low Valuation at the end of 1974.

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Click on image to enlarge.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.  Our numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years. The chart includes two remarkable episodes: the five-year period (1997-2001) during which the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index stayed above the upper forecast band, and the period starting in October 2008, when it last fell below the lower forecast band, where it has stayed through April 2014 (5 years and 7 months).  Ever since, the Index has stayed above the lower forecast band and now stands at 6.0 % above the lower forecast band projected four years ago.

Keppler chart

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection indicates that the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index is expected to rise to 13,031 from its current level of 9,139. This corresponds to a compound annual total return estimate of 9.3 % in local currencies — up from 8.7 % last quarter.  The upper-band estimate of 15,637 by December 31, 2018 implies a compound annual total return of 14.4 % (up from 13.8 % three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of 10,425 corresponds to a compound annual total return of 3.3 % (up from 2.8 % three months ago).  Given the current low interest and inflation environment, even this lower estimate sounds enticing and beats the expected returns over three to five years for most alternatives in the fixed income area.

Annual growth rates of key fundamentals have improved markedly compared with last September’s numbers.  Annual book value growth (December 2014 over December 2013) for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 11.4 % (compared to 3.1 % as of September 30, 2014).  Cash flow is up 12.4 % over the last twelve months (previous quarter +2.9 %) and earnings, which declined 1.5 % three months ago, are now growing again at 5.4 % year over year.  Finally, dividends for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index grew 9.8 % in the last twelve months as compared to the annual dividend growth of 1.9 % as of the end of September 2014. Numbers are in local currencies.

Michael Keppler New York, January 16, 2015

To help you develop your own plan that takes advantage of falling share prices and a strong greenback, we are sharing access to five ENR International Investing conference calls by Eric Roseman and Thomas Fischer of ENR Asset Management.  The calls were recorded last week.  Each call reviews of different types of portfolio and as a Gary Scott reader, you can listen in free for the next three weeks until the recordings expire.   Last Saturday we began by looking at a low risk portfolio strategy.

Today we are sharing the ENR Dynamic Portfolio strategy.

This strategy issues the Multi Currency Sandwich and has 0.8x leverage (Invest-Loan). The dynamic portfolio seeks aggressive growth from a diversified portfolio of income-producing global stocks and uses a value approach to stock selection with a  41% non US dollar currency diversification.  This portfolio currently shows excellent performance because it boosted loans in Euro and Yen in June 2014; so the rising US dollar has increased the profits.

Eric Roseman and Thomas Fischer are my investment advisers at ENR Asset Management. ENR is the access route to an investment account with Jyske Bank.  Merri and I are sponsoring two Multi Currency Asset Allocation seminars with ENR so you can meet Eric and Thomas.

You are invited to meet them first via these conference calls.   Join in at no cost as a Gary Scott reader.

Call 905-694-9451  or 1-800-408-3053 and use the Viking Dynamic Portfolio Pass code: 309503242 #

Viking DYNAMIC Portfolio (JAN 13 2015)

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To listen to the Low and Medium Risk Portfolio conference calls, click here.


Global Earnings Seminar

Regain Real Security

There is a path to true security.

I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake.  Almost!

The supposed error?  Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.

Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.

The girl was pretty and blond.  Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.

We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school.  Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end.  Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California.  I started traveling the world.  Never saw her again.  I hope her life has gone well.  But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.

What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart.  Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.

We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path.  Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road.  Traffic was no problem, not many cars.  Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd.  There we passed an old clapboard candy store.  I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees.  Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile.  There was Terry’s house.

I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost.  There were dozens of paths made by who knows what.  Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school.  I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir.  Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans).  I was home!

Sweet simplicity, that dream.  Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky.  Pure innocence.

My tragic error was looking back.  I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots.  Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.

Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage.  McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers.  The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings. Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys.  Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun.  Good bye memories, good bye.

How can our kids walk in places like this?  How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?

How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast?  Then something inside snapped. “There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.

How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines?  Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends?  How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?

“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought.  “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.

This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades.  This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.

By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now.  That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.

This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world.  It helped us find and develop Merrily Farms into a sanctuary here on Little Horse Creek.

That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.

I want to share this information with a special few in our summer course in the Blue Ridge Mountains where the air is dry, crisp, with a bright sparkling sun.  Our North Carolina woods is a place where we can once again walk down sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths beneath huge, fat, green fir and hemlock.

We start the course with this question that can help us get our lives back.

“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”

This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.  This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness.  Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are likely to make good investment decisions.  If not, no matter how much money an investors has, changes are, they’ll lose.

Bring Value and Purposeful Investing Together


Join us to learn how to make safety and profit easier and less time consuming so we can focus on our individual purposes in life.

Become an International Club member and join like-minded souls, who take a positive view and think outside the box for better health, greater income and safer, more profitable investments. Share ideas on how to add value to everything and make 2016 -2017 your best years yet.

In 2016 Merri’s, David’s and my mission is to share our 50 years of experience in international business, investing and living to make ourselves happier, healthier and wealthier.

To reach a wider audience we have shifted our seminars online including the seminar “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.

Here is a partial syllabus of this seminar.

  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have make smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.
  • How to look for short term problems that create long term value.
  • Update on the best ten markets for safety and profit.
  • How to diversify in value with Country ETFs.
  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Investing in Demographics.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • Hidden Inflation .
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2016. When and how to invest in gold and silver . How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.

Club membership is for an entire year and the recorded seminar is just one high point.

In 2016 and 2017 we are conducting online seminars about value investing, natural health and how to write to sell.

International Club members receive all the online seminars free.

In addition club membership includes:

  • Personal investing Course (Pi), normally $297, FREE
  • Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher, normally $299, FREE
  • Eventful Business, normally $349, FREE
  • International Business Made EZ, normally $299, FREE
  • Report “Three Economic Conditions for 50% or More Profit,” normally $29.95, FREE
  • Report “Silver Dip 2015” normally $27, FREE
  • Three online Value Investing Seminars, normally $477, FREE
  • One online Natural Health Seminar, normally $119, FREE
  • One online Writers Camp, normally $299, FREE

Annual International Club (one year) Membership  $1,199

Annual International Club (one year) Membership four quarterly $375 payments

Merri and I have been organizing courses, seminars and newsletters about international and Super Thinking  lifestyles for over 30 years.  The importance of this sharing… by like minded souls… was reinforced when a delegate from a course sent an email that said:

My Dearest Merri and Gary, Thank you for your most gracious hospitality last weekend. I am just thrilled at being a part of your group.  You and Gary were exactly as I imagined you to be, warm friendly, kind, considerate, genuine, helpful, fun, sincere, what else can I say……I felt so comfortable in your presence and learned so much in your course. I was sad to leave the farm that Sunday afternoon.  You made us all feel so welcome and cared about.  You were so kind to make arrangements for a ride with the other delegates from the Charlotte Airport.  They were so nice to me and so helpful, by the time the weekend was over I felt like they were my long lost brothers. Monday morning we all had breakfast at the airport together and I was so sad to see them go, I was sad the weekend was over, perhaps sad is not the right word for how I was feeling perhaps Gratitude is a better way to describe it.  Grateful for having the opportunity to share the weekend with such wonderful, like minded Human Beings, in the beautiful mountains of North Carolina. Thank you Merri and Gary.  Thanks to you I now have new hope and a new direction to move forward in my life.   I know by attending your classes and conferences that through education and due diligence I will make the right choices.

I invite you to be a member of the International Club.

Let’s prosper in these times of change. Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year?  Join us online.

Club members receive everything we offer in 2016 and 2017.

Annual International Club (one year) Membership  $1,199

Annual International Club (one year) Membership four quarterly $375 payments