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Latin American liquidity grows in importance with the US real estate market in the doldrums, the US economy in recession and global stock markets on the way down.

So this Ecuador Living reader asked a good question:

“Hi Gary , I really appreciate the no-fluff, candid information and advice you provide your readers; and your wisdom about global markets. Here’s a question that I suspect at least some of your other readers would probably be interested in as well…

“How do you think the current liquidity situation in the housing market will affect house prices in Ecuador and other Latin American countries?

“Will the decreased liquidity cause less money to be available for people to buy houses in those countries? Or will the lower prices in those countries continue to

attract more purchasers from the States (and thus increase prices)? Or will these 2 factors at least somewhat offset each other? Thanks for your insight! Tom”

Here is my reply.

“Tom, this is a good question way beyond my ability to guess with any feeling of accurately. However, there appears to be a pretty good head of steam pushing gringos south due to many other factors.

A recent article in Barron’s stated that a huge survey with 115,000 respondents shows:

1.6 million U.S. households have already made the decision to relocate overseas.

Another 1.8 million households are seriously considering relocation and are likely to do it.

7.7 million households are “somewhat seriously” considering relocation and “may” do it.

Nearly 3 million households are seriously considering the purchase of a vacation home or other property outside the U.S. , and another 10 million are “somewhat” seriously considering it.

In other words about 10% of U.S. households are looking at leaving the country, and another 10% are considering living outside the country part time. This silent emigration is ignored by nearly every population analyst.

Latin America will see a majority of these emigrants.

My guess is that tough times in the US will drive even more northerners here. The housing market is likely to take longer than people have to wait and they are better to sell low there and buy property here that will appreciate sooner and more.

More important in Ecuador there are domestic factors supporting prices such as 555. See http://www.garyascott.com/2007/10/29/1855.html

Also look at these statistics form the International Center for Tropical Agriculture.

Latin Am and the Carib. population grew 166 million in 1950 to 513 million in 2000

Expected to Increase to 800 million by 2050

So however the North American market shifts prices here should grow. So far this is what we see.

Regards,

Gary

Join us this winter or spring at one of our tours and courses are below:

Feb. 18-23 Ecuador Import Export Course

Mar. 7-9 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador

Enjoy our court yard companionship at our hotel as we talk about economies and markets during meals and at breaks.

Mar. 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour

See this house for sale…unless its gone by the time you arrive.

Mar. 12-14 Coastal Real Estate tour

Enjoy dining here at Palmazul where we will stay during the coastal tour.

Mar. 7-9 IBEZ and Mar 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour

Mar. 7-9 IBEZ and both real estate tour

Most delegates in March will join us for two or three courses as there is a sizable savings.

If you attend all three courses separately the fees are $1,847. Sign up for all three at only $1,499 here. Save $348. Three course savings.

Three courses for two separately are $2,597. Two on our three course adventure is only $1,999. Save $598. Three courses savings for two.

April 10 – 14 Super Thinking + Spanish

June 19- 21 Ecuador Shaman Tour

Here is a group at a previous shamanic tour arriving for a ceremony on Lake Cuicocha